Cute… don’t be offended, it’s all in good fun.  Firemen and Astronauts, eat your heart out.

Randall Rothenberg, President of the IAB claims regulatory and special interest forces are out to destroy many aspects of Interactive advertising, especially behavioral targeting.

MediaPost Publications Rothenberg: ‘Forces Out To Destroy Interactive Advertising’ 02/25/2010.

This was my number 8 out of 10 on my 2010 predictions as published in PM360.

We have only ourselves to blame as in industry for not stepping up with self-regulations sooner.  The IAB is now focused on education consumers about BT (behavioral targeting) and trying to harness the industry toward self-regulation, but it may be too little too late.

I’ve been preaching against this practice since it started.  I recall leading  a very vocal, controversial and engaging workshop on it with Bob Gear (from Insight Interactive at the time) at a very early CBI eMarketing Conference (perhaps 7 years ago now).  Particularly in healthcare, BT poses a significant line drawing problem.  While the average consumer may “feel OK” about an advertising company tracking (and dropping a cookie on their browser for future ad targeting) the fact that they go to allergy or GERD sites, they probably would NOT feel OK about the same advertising company tracking them on cancer or HIV sites.  Who is to determine what is acceptable?  The Network Advertising Initiative (NAI) came up with a set of guidelines to try to draw the line for the world… but who are they to decide?  In the end it is the consumers individual choice.  What I view as personal, NAI may view as fair game.

The NAI also offers an “opt-out” on their homepage for participating networks.  Where as most pending legislation wants an explicit opt-in requirement.  People are apathetic, with neither and opt-out or an opt-in getting much use.  Perhaps this is a signal that congress is trying to fix a “non-problem”.  In defense of online advertising, perhaps apathy (that of the general population and potentially that of  congress) might just win out in favor of the status quo.

Interesting tool from Google to better understand search query trends by volume, category, seasonality, geographic distribution, etc…

Google Insights for Search.

At the IAB leadership summit, newly installed IAB chairman reignited the debate over premium content on the web carrying a micropayment fee.

MediaPost Publications Bold Predictions From 24/7 Real Media’s Moore: Publishers Should Create ‘Toll Gate’ For Premium Content 02/22/2010.

Prognosticators like Chris Anderson claim “information wants to be free”, a theme throughout his new book “Free:  The Future of a Radical Price”.  For a somewhat opposing counterpoint, which see the book review at The New Yorker by one of my other favorite authors, Malcolm Gladwell.

I’ve commented on the declining quality of Internet content before in my post, “Is Google changing language itself?” and feel this is significant issue for the “old school” of premium content producers.  Have a beer with any newspaper journalist and she’ll tell you that quality journalism today is a sad state of affairs… then she’ll hand you a card with her blog address on it.

What do you think?  To Free or not to Free?

eMarketer writes up an interesting assessment of marketer’s perceptions of using a traditional (strategic full service) agency vs. a digital only shop.  While the digital shops seem to be strong on the digital where they are incumbents, the traditional agencies seem to have a long-term lock on clients.  What do you think?

Will Pure-Play Agencies Survive? – eMarketer.

The IAB leadership conference is buzzing with thoughts that “publishers brands” might be going the way of the dinosaur.  Ad Networks (bulk buy ad networks, not premium rep firms such as e-Healthcare Solutions), Ad Exchanges (both demand and supply side) and other technologies are diminishing the value of the publisher’s brand by selling quantity over quality and using technology to focus on audiences, not branded sites.

IAB Confab: Future of Branded Sites Unclear.

Viactivty analyzed top iPhone Apps in the Medical and Health category and provides some interesting insights here in terms of functionality they employ and average prices.

Conclusion: The killer App in medical/health has yet to be developed.

In search of “medical killer app for iPhone” – Part I (Section “Medical”) – iPhone Medical Apps: news, reviews, trends.

iCrossing just released a study analyzing natural search results for non-branded keywords and found that more than 95% of all site traffic from search engines comes from page-one results.  Healthcare, a deep-dive research topic, indexed slightly lower at 93% indicating searches seeking healthcare  topics were some what more willing to dig deeper into their search results.

Bottom line, if you aren’t on page one of a SERP (search engine results page), than you aren’t getting the lion’s share of the traffic.  It’s important to note that users expectations to “find” information seems to be getting higher.   Prior studies indicated as low as 80% of clicks coming from page one.

Online Search & Consumer Behavior Reports, Keyword Analysis Research: iCrossing.

Ad Week’s Beefing Up Banner Ads article touts data-driven online advertising exchanges and the “saviors” to the world on online display advertising.  It’s interesting that online display (still growing nicely) is labeled as a “failure” when compared to search.  There is not doubt search changed the game and provides a terrific ROI.  However, display has often been discounted even though many studies have been done now to show display actually improves performance of online search campaigns as well as organic searching volume for promoted brands  (see earlier post).  Additionally as a brand driving vehicle, there is no doubt that display is far superior to search.  The Internet has been forced to take marketing crumbs that fall from the table and as a result has been pigeon holed as a direct marketing vehicle, but as more brand-driving media (like TV) lose share to the web, display and online video as branding tools will continue to evolve.

My prediction on exchanges is that premium publishers will not commit to them until such time as far more transparency is presented including what fees the exchange is taking, a full disclosure conflicts of interest the exchange may have, and full transparency on media allocation and decision ad delivery making formulas.

My fear on exchanges is that congress, once we get through the financial crisis and health care reform, will naturally turn its focus to the privacy concerns that data targeting presents online.  We don’t yet have the transaparency on a B2B level required to make exchanges work.  We certainly don’t have the transparency (or understanding) required on a B2C level.  I’m not talking about and opt-in process whereby the fine print of some user agreement adequately achieves CYA legalese either.  I’m talking about passing the “grandmother test”.  Is the targeting that is taking place obvious and simple enough for my grandmother to understand (or better still, your average congressman)?  Until it is, I’m afraid that dog won’t hunt (for long) before it’s put on a congressional short leash.

My predictions for 2010 (as published in PM360)

1). Pharmaceutical clients will increasingly scrutinize and question how much of their advertising money is flowing through agency-owned ad networks or ad exchanges.  As the lines of media buying and selling continue to blur, clients will become increasingly concerned about the objectivity of their agencies, and rightfully so. The area of most concern is where agencies are spending the clients’ dollars with media properties, ad networks, or ad exchanges which are owned by their own parent ad agency.

2).  While the clouds of recession will continue to part and the sun will slowly get increasingly brighter, 2010 will continue to see economic darwinism at its finest. Many unhealthy businesses that were hanging on through 2009 in hopes of a rebounding economy will capitulate to the inevitable forces of insolvency.  A bad or outdated business model will not rebound even when the economy does.  Expect further layoffs, bankruptcies, and shot-gun mergers as a result.

3.) The battle between Apple and Google will intensify as Apple launches its tablet and the arms race for quality and quantity “Apps” accelerates.  In the pharmaceutical market, this will be very evident, and disruptive to the incumbents, in the race to capture physician attention on point-of-care devices.

4.) Google will not sit on its laurels in the mobile market, but rather will continue to attack Apple and other mobile players. Google will fight for market domination of its Android mobile operating system with the vigor and intensity it previously reserved only for the search market.  By shedding itself of non-core businesses, or at least reducing their focus and priority on them, Google will continue to gain market share in mobile and may even surpass Apple in this market in 2010.

5.) The weaker medical journals will continue to shut down due to decreasing advertising revenue, while the stronger publications will benefit from a less-saturated market.  Look for strengthening of the market-leading titles and an expansion of their businesses into other media channels.  The weed-out process was and will continue to be painful, but in the long-term it is healthy capitalism at work.  The market had too many print journals chasing too few physicians and a decreasing pool of print advertising dollars.  We are returning to a degree of normalcy and the strong will get stronger.

6.) It is very likely that just under the wire before year-end 2010, the FDA will release long overdue guidelines for online advertising with a focus on pharma interactions with both search and user-generated content.  The guidelines will probably not be earth shattering, as the FDA has and will continue to seek feedback in the form of public comments.  Expectations of what will be covered and included in the guidelines will be covered widely by the media and blogosphere, making the guidelines themselves anti-climatic. However, the formalization of guidelines may be just the assurance the industry needs in order for pharma’s online spending to reach parity with other industries’ at greater than 10% of marketing budgets going to online initiatives.  Of course I’ve been predicting pharma would spend 10% of its budget online since 2007, so take this prediction with a grain of salt.

7.) The Democrats will pass healthcare reform in 2010 in a form close to today’s pending legislation, though probably slightly watered down.  The changes will be substantial and far-reaching, but will not be earth-shattering for pharma.  In some respects, particularly the requirement for far more Americans to secure health insurance, reform may be a boost for business.  Rest assured that, in any form, reform will come with higher taxes across the board.  Insurance companies, employers and consumers may be most at risk  as new regulation may recognize portions of health insurance as a taxable benefit.

8).  Congress may debate and even act on taking a tougher stance on privacy laws as they pertain to online advertising and behavioral targeting (the act of targeting someone based on prior behaviors such as visiting a diabetes site, and then following them around the web with a diabetes advertisement) in particular.  This may include a requirement for a consumer to opt-in to such targeting as opposed to offering consumers the ability to opt-out.  It is not too late for industry to self-regulate on these matters, and the IAB (Internet Advertising Bureau) is making a concerted effort towards educating the public and coordinating the web publishing community.  I hope I’m wrong on this one, but legislation may be inevitable.

9.) The “great shift” of media dollars from offline toward online will continue in 2010.  Total pharmaceutical marketing expenditure may grow only nominally or even shrink in 2010, however, online will continue to take marketshare from off-line vehichles for the foreseeable future.  This great shift is driven by the accountability and measurability of online programs.

10.) With the proliferation of mobile and continuously improving targeting techniques, 2010 may be the year where interactive media emerges as a significant compliance and adherence tool for pharma.  Beyond just a branding and performance-based media channel, the interactive promise of real-time notifications, prescription reminders, refill reminders, side-effect safety profiles delivered on a timely basis, etc… is here for pharmaceutical companies eager to take advantage of it.